Hawaii Developers’ Council Hosts Mid-Year Forecast
The news was mixed at this year’s annual Mid-Year Real Estate Forecast sponsored by the Hawaii Developers’ Council on July 30 at the Hawaii Prince Hotel. The large number of industry attendees heard a panel of experts from several sectors discuss the current economic and industry picture as well as and what may lie ahead.
Developers’ Council president Lance Wilhelm welcomed the attendees and past president Shane Peters served as moderator for the panel, which consisted of Scott Higashi, executive vice president of sales, Prudential Locations, addressing the residential marketplace; Mike Hamasu, director of consulting and research for Colliers Monroe Friedlander, discussing the industrial/office sector; Wendell Brooks III, senior vice president of CB Richard Ellis, talking about retail activity; Joe Toy, president and CEO of Hospitality Advisors, LLC, presenting the tourism outlook; and Paul Brewbaker, principal, TZ Economics, giving the statewide economic outlook.
Most panelists agreed that the state still faced challenging times, with Oahu a little more stable than the neighbor islands.
“There are some very encouraging economic indicators,” Higashi reported, “and even though some media say Hawaii’s real estate market is still in crisis, it’s really not.” He emphasized that this is a good time to start planning and developing in the residential area.
Hamasu pointed out that although unemployment on Oahu is improving, state numbers are still down and the office market continues to soften. However, “The industrial sector is showing life again,” he reported, “with private building permits volume rising — the first gain in three years.”
Mike Hamasu, director of consulting and research for Colliers Monroe Friedlander, spoke about the office and industrial sectors.
Toy pointed out that there is “lots of renovation activity” in the tourism sector. As to the overall outlook, he feels that although “recovery appears sustainable, the marketplace still is uneven.” However, “Timeshare demand is very high, with demand from the Japanese market skyrocketing!”
The big news of the day was in Brooks’ presentation on the retail marketplace. “Trends across the board are so much better for retail,” he said, proceeding to list a large number of projects currently under construction with an estimated value of $710 million. He also spoke about numerous planned projects. His forecast was that value and day-to-day retailers would continue to expand and there would be continued development by retailers with strong balance sheets. He also foresees more new national retailers coming into (or returning to) Hawaii.
Wendell Brooks, III, senior vice president
of CB Richard Ellis, addressed the retail market.
Brewbaker wrapped up the review with his overall economic summary, which primarily addressed the national financial picture and its impacts on Hawaii. For the short term, he predicts moderate global economic recovery will proceed, not without risks.
